Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.454198 0.525591 0.603726 0.695475 0.800147 0.915726 1.052908
2025-07-06 0.325574 0.419979 0.533948 0.681150 0.865683 1.088762 1.378245
2025-07-13 0.265380 0.370665 0.507163 0.695966 0.949057 1.275137 1.725409
2025-07-20 0.232301 0.346227 0.502733 0.731498 1.055015 1.493402 2.129072
2025-07-27 0.204093 0.322062 0.492548 0.753999 1.141226 1.689141 2.517432
2025-08-03 0.178254 0.296362 0.475109 0.761399 1.203402 1.853479 2.873307
2025-08-10 0.155163 0.270844 0.453587 0.758259 1.246946 1.991531 3.199658
2025-08-17 0.134926 0.246629 0.430361 0.748434 1.277111 2.109486 3.502799
2025-08-24 0.118433 0.226141 0.410191 0.740284 1.307508 2.228247 3.814628
2025-08-31 0.101941 0.203171 0.382721 0.716019 1.307517 2.296332 4.047937
2025-09-07 0.097200 0.201004 0.391109 0.754538 1.417456 2.553666 4.614120
2025-09-14 0.084968 0.182799 0.368201 0.733915 1.420696 2.629236 4.875636
2025-09-21 0.074127 0.166044 0.346403 0.713635 1.423797 2.706998 5.151859
2025-09-28 0.065017 0.151558 0.327279 0.696357 1.430810 2.792476 5.449700
2025-10-05 0.060337 0.145803 0.324771 0.711293 1.500376 2.997211 5.980951
2025-10-12 0.058095 0.145092 0.332466 0.747541 1.614796 3.294334 6.707050
2025-10-19 0.054845 0.141598 0.333797 0.770501 1.704290 3.550266 7.373118
2025-10-26 0.050673 0.135311 0.328264 0.778052 1.762442 3.749007 7.941928
2025-11-02 0.046163 0.127520 0.318387 0.774849 1.797247 3.903219 8.432632
2025-11-09 0.041686 0.119134 0.306113 0.764823 1.816150 4.026067 8.868201
2025-11-16 0.037801 0.111690 0.295140 0.756505 1.837779 4.155678 9.326362
2025-11-23 0.033407 0.102196 0.278026 0.731743 1.819866 4.200028 9.608329
2025-11-30 0.032827 0.103164 0.287046 0.771051 1.952574 4.577408 10.626423